Thai economy is projected to reboun

Thai economy is projected to rebound moderately following higher confidence of consumers and investors while new government is able to implement investment projects; however, the economy seems to encounter lower potential growth than the past particularly owing to weak export competitiveness, high household debt and shortage of labor

• Exports are projected to rebound moderately following faster global economic recovery; however, Thai export structure that heavily relies on low value-added technology and agricultural products seems to prevent export to grow much faster
• Private consumption is projected to rebound moderately following higher confidence supporting retail business, food industry and tourist-related sectors, but consumption for big-ticket items is seen to grow only modestly amid high and rising household debt that hinders purchasing power, especially among indebted households during rising interest rate environment
• Foreign and local investors are projected to expand their production in Thailand following higher confidence amid political stability; however, it is possible that some lines of new production can be settled in neighboring countries for fear of labor shortage in Thailand, causing slower economic growth than it should have been in the past
• Despite some pitfalls, public investment is seen to be a catalyst that attracts higher private investment amid lower transportation costs that raise competitiveness
• Government’s economic policies that aim to promote higher role of the private sector, especially SMEs, border trades and special economic zones, are seen to support an accelerating economic recovery of Thailand
• Risks to economic recovery in 2015 are seen to come from external rather than internal, especially after the end of prolonged political turmoil while global economic recovery remains weak

Global liquidity is drying up, pushing higher demand for the US dollar; however, growing risk appetite to regional assets is seen to support Thai baht not to be depreciating so rapidly as previously anticipated
• End of QE program in this coming October is projected to cause some financial volatility as investors are seen to take profit in emerging markets and return to the US dollar assets for fear of interest rate hikes in the US
• Thai baht is projected to depreciate slightly amid greater capital outflows
• Capital outflows are seen to be temporary and will be partially compensated by inflows of portfolio and direct investment as Thailand’s capital market and economy are likely to attract foreign investors, particularly owing to economic recovery and political stability
• In addition, despite the end of QE in the US, monetary expansion in the eurozone and Japan for stimulating their deflating economies is seen to increase risk appetite for assets in emerging markets and likely to induce the Thai baht not to depreciate as abruptly in 2014 as previously anticipated
• However, Thai baht is projected to receive much greater pressure in 2015, causing the baht to depreciate abruptly following larger capital outflows for fear of interest rate hikes in the US whereas the baht is unlikely to receive fundamental support of high surplus of current account balance like in 2014 because imports are projected to rise amid higher demand for investment causing high deficit in the current account balance
• Political volatility during the second half of next year is another factor to monitor as it could affect confidence of investors if the general election is postponed

New government is seen to be able to manage inflationary pressure using various measures to lower financial burden of households and businesses, inducing the MPC to delay its normalization of interest rate
• New government is able to ask for cooperation from businesses and state enterprises to keep consumer prices and utility costs unchanged for supporting economic recovery
• Energy prices were lowered to facilitate the energy reform process which reduced financial burden of households in terms of lowering cooking gas prices and transportation costs
• Tax deduction measures are all kept unchanged but they are subjected to review next year
• Despite the government’s effort to lower inflationary pressure, inflation is projected to rise next year following stronger demand that could allow businesses to pass though higher costs of production to consumers whereas measure to deduct value-added tax is going to expire in September next year
• Higher tax collection from sales, inheritance, property, alcohol and other types of consumption is seen to induce higher inflation next year whereas rising salary of government officials is likely to have minor effect on inflation
• Lower inflationary pressure amid slow economic recovery owing to high household debt and weak external demand is seen to induce the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to delay their decision to raise the policy rate, particularly without volatility in the exchange rate
• It is noted that there is a risk that the MPC is running out of bullets (policy rates) to fire if there is global or local economic volatility as the rate cuts of 75bps (from current 2.00% to record low of 1.25%) is unlikely to be enough to support economic recovery; that explains why the MPC needs to raise rate to reserve these bullets during recovery period

ผลลัพธ์ (อังกฤษ) 2:

Thai economy is projected to rebound moderately following higher confidence of consumers and investors while new government is able to implement investment projects; however, The Economy seems to encounter Lower than Potential The past growth particularly owing to weak Export competitiveness, High Household debt and shortage of Labor. • Exports are projected to rebound moderately Faster Global Economic Recovery following; however, Thai Export structure that heavily relies on Low value-Added Technology and Agricultural products seems to Prevent Export to Grow much Faster. • Private consumption is projected to rebound moderately following Higher confidence Supporting retail business, Food Industry and Tourist-Related sectors, but consumption. for Big-Ticket Items is seen to Grow only modestly Amid High and Rising Household debt that hinders purchasing Power, especially Among indebted households during Rising interest rate Environment. • Foreign and Local Investors are projected to Expand their production in Thailand following Higher confidence Amid political stability. ; however, it is possible that some lines of new production can be settled in neighboring countries for fear of labor shortage in Thailand, causing slower economic growth than it should have been in the past.




• Despite some pitfalls, public Investment is seen to be a Catalyst that attracts Higher Private Investment Amid Lower Transportation costs that Raise competitiveness.
• Government's Economic Policies that AIM to Promote Higher role of The Private Sector, especially SMEs, border trades and special Economic zones,. are seen to support an Accelerating Economic Recovery of Thailand.
• Risks to Economic Recovery in the 2,015th are seen to Come from external Rather than internal, especially After The End of prolonged political turmoil while Global Economic Recovery Remains weak. Global Liquidity is Drying up, Pushing Higher demand. for the US dollar; however, Growing risk appetite to Regional assets is seen to support Thai baht Not to be depreciating So rapidly As previously anticipated. • End of QE Program in this Coming October is projected to Cause some Financial volatility As Investors are seen to Take profit in emerging markets and. Return to The US Dollar assets for Fear of interest rate hikes in The US. • Thai baht is projected to depreciate slightly greater Amid Capital outflows.




• Capital outflows are seen to be temporary and Will be partially compensated by inflows of Portfolio and Direct Investment As Thailand's Capital market and Economy are likely to Attract Foreign Investors, particularly owing to Economic Recovery and political stability.
• In addition, despite The End of QE. in The US, Monetary Expansion in The eurozone and Japan for stimulating their deflating economies is seen to increase risk appetite for assets in emerging markets and likely to induce The Thai baht Not to depreciate As abruptly in 2 014 As previously anticipated.
• However, Thai baht is projected to receive much greater pressure in 2015, causing the baht to depreciate abruptly following larger capital outflows for fear of interest rate hikes in the US whereas the baht is unlikely to receive fundamental support of high surplus of current account balance like in 2014 because imports are. projected to Rise Amid Higher Investment causing demand for High Deficit in current account The Balance.
• Political volatility during The Second Half of Next year is another factor to Monitor As IF IT could affect confidence of Investors The general election is postponed.

New Government is seen to be Able to Manage Inflationary pressure using Various Measures to Lower Financial burden of households and Businesses, inducing The MPC to Delay ITS normalization of interest rate.
• New Government is Able to ask for Cooperation from Businesses and State Enterprises to Keep Consumer. prices and Utility costs unchanged for Supporting Economic Recovery.
• Energy prices were lowered to facilitate The Energy Reform Process which reduced Financial burden of households in terms of lowering Cooking Gas prices and Transportation costs.
• Tax deduction Measures are all kept unchanged but they are subjected to review. Next year
• Despite The Government's Effort to Lower Inflationary pressure, Inflation is projected to Rise Next year following Stronger demand that could Allow Businesses to Pass though Higher costs of production to Consumers whereas measure to deduct value-Added Tax is Going to Expire in September Next. year
• Higher Tax Collection from sales, inheritance, Property, Alcohol and Other types of consumption is seen to induce Higher Inflation Rising Next year whereas Salary of Government officials is likely to Have Minor Effect on Inflation.
• Lower Inflationary pressure Amid Slow Economic Recovery owing to High Household debt and weak external demand is seen to induce The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to Delay their decision to Raise The Policy rate, particularly Without volatility in The Exchange rate.
• It is noted that there is a risk that the MPC is running out of bullets (policy rates) to fire if there is global or local economic volatility as the rate cuts of 75bps (from current 2.00% to record low of 1.25%) is unlikely to be enough to. support economic recovery; that explains why the MPC needs to raise rate to reserve these bullets during recovery period.

ผลลัพธ์ (อังกฤษ) 3:

Thai economy is projected to rebound moderately following higher confidence of consumers and investors while new government. Is able to implement investment projects; however the economy, seems to encounter lower potential growth than the past particularly. Owing to weak, export competitiveness high household debt and shortage of labor

.Education Exports are projected to rebound moderately following faster global economic recovery; however Thai export, structure. That heavily relies on low value-added technology and agricultural products seems to prevent export to grow much faster
* Private consumption is projected to rebound moderately following higher confidence supporting retail business food industry,, And, tourist-related sectorsBut consumption for big-ticket items is seen to grow only modestly amid high and rising household debt that hinders purchasing. Power especially among, indebted households during rising interest rate environment
- Foreign and local investors are projected. To expand their production in Thailand following higher confidence amid political, stability; howeverIt is possible that some lines of new production can be settled in neighboring countries for fear of labor shortage in. Thailand causing slower, economic growth than it should have been in the past
- Despite some pitfalls public investment,, Is seen to be a catalyst that attracts higher private investment amid lower transportation costs that raise competitiveness
.Education Government 's economic policies that aim to promote higher role of the private sector especially SMEs border trades,,, And special economic zones are seen, to support an accelerating economic recovery of Thailand
- Risks to economic recovery. In 2015 are seen to come from external rather, than internalEspecially after the end of prolonged political turmoil while global economic recovery remains weak

Global liquidity. Is drying up pushing higher, demand for the US dollar; however growing risk, appetite to regional assets is seen to support. Thai baht not to be depreciating so rapidly as previously anticipated
.Education End of QE program in this coming October is projected to cause some financial volatility as investors are seen to take. Profit in emerging markets and return to the US dollar assets for fear of interest rate hikes in the US
- Thai baht is projected. To depreciate slightly amid greater capital outflows
.Education Capital outflows are seen to be temporary and will be partially compensated by inflows of portfolio and direct investment. As Thailand 's capital market and economy are likely to attract foreign investors particularly owing, to economic recovery. And political stability
*, In addition despite the end of QE in, the USMonetary expansion in the eurozone and Japan for stimulating their deflating economies is seen to increase risk appetite. For assets in emerging markets and likely to induce the Thai baht not to depreciate as abruptly in 2014 as previously anticipated
* However Thai baht, is projected to receive much greater pressure, in 2015Causing the baht to depreciate abruptly following larger capital outflows for fear of interest rate hikes in the US whereas. The baht is unlikely to receive fundamental support of high surplus of current account balance like in 2014 because imports. Are projected to rise amid higher demand for investment causing high deficit in the current account balance
.Education Political volatility during the second half of next year is another factor to monitor as it could affect confidence of. Investors if the general election is postponed

New government is seen to be able to manage inflationary pressure using. Various measures to lower financial burden of households and businesses inducing the, MPC to delay its normalization of. Interest rate
.Education New government is able to ask for cooperation from businesses and state enterprises to keep consumer prices and utility. Costs unchanged for supporting economic recovery
- Energy prices were lowered to facilitate the energy reform process which. Reduced financial burden of households in terms of lowering cooking gas prices and transportation costs
.Education Tax deduction measures are all kept unchanged but they are subjected to review next year
- Despite the government s effort. ' To lower inflationary pressure inflation is, projected to rise next year following stronger demand that could allow businesses. To pass though higher costs of production to consumers whereas measure to deduct value-added tax is going to expire in September. Next year
.Education Higher tax collection from sales inheritance property alcohol and,,, other types of consumption is seen to induce higher. Inflation next year whereas rising salary of government officials is likely to have minor effect on inflation
.Education Lower inflationary pressure amid slow economic recovery owing to high household debt and weak external demand is seen. To induce the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to delay their decision to raise the, policy rate particularly without volatility. In the exchange rate
.Education It is noted that there is a risk that the MPC is running out of bullets (policy rates) to fire if there is global or. Local economic volatility as the rate cuts of 75bps (from current 2.00% to record low of 1.25%) is unlikely to be enough. To support economic recovery; that explains why the MPC needs to raise rate to reserve these bullets during recovery period
.