A sensitivity analysis is conducted

A sensitivity analysis is conducted for infection spread with considers the transmission probability PHT and PHH. The actual transmission rate of H5N1 influenza in traditional trade network was not clear thus the transmission probability is varied for this individual-based model. The result shows that the avian influenza spread rapidly when PHT increase. We also found that when the PHT increased not only the number of infected nodes at each time step increase but also the total number of infected nodes increase as well. The results indicate that we can classify the transmission probability for this individual-based model into 3 types: 1) low transmission probability, 2) moderate transmission probability and 3) high transmission probability or highly photogenic. For transmission probability PHH, we found that when PHH increase the number of infected nodes in figure 2(B) is close to figure 2(C). Thus, it points out that PHH impact on the dynamic of epidemics less than PHT. The result of figure 3 is similar to the result of figure 2, PHH still less impact on epidemics.
We next considered the effect of virus inactivation. Figure 4 shows the impact of virus inactivation on the epidemic size. The epidemic size is defined as the maximum number of infected nodes. We found that Tv increase as epidemic size increase, so the epidemic size is a function of Tv. In figure 4 (both upper and lower), the epidemic sizes rapidly increase at high transmission probability. While the results of low transmission probability, PHT=0.3 and PHH=0.3, shows the epidemic size is rarely change. These results confirm that Tv has less important for the spread of outbreak at low transmission probability, whereas at high transmission probability, Tv has more important. The result of figure 4 confirms the results of figure 2 and figure 3. When PHT increases, the number of infected nodes and the epidemic size rapidly increase. In contrast, when PHH increases the number of infected nodes and the epidemic size remain unchanged. Thus, PHT is more important for the speed of spreading and epidemic size than PHH.

ผลลัพธ์ (แอฟริกา) 1:

Word 'n sensitiwiteitsanalise gedoen vir infeksie versprei met mening die oordrag waarskynlikheid PHT en PHH. Die werklike oordrag koers van H5N1 griep in die tradisionele handel netwerk is nie duidelik dus die oordrag waarskynlikheid gewissel vir hierdie-individuele model. Die resultaat toon dat die voëlgriep versprei vinnig wanneer PHT toename. Ons het ook gevind dat wanneer die PHT verhoog nie net die aantal besmette nodes op elke keer stap toename maar ook verhoog die totale aantal besmette nodes sowel. Die resultate dui daarop dat ons die oordrag waarskynlikheid vir hierdie-individuele model kan klassifiseer in 3 vorme: 1) lae transmissie waarskynlikheid, 2) matige oordrag waarskynlikheid en 3) 'n hoë waarskynlikheid oordrag of hoogs fotogeniese. Vir die oordrag waarskynlikheid PHH, het ons gevind dat wanneer PHH verhoging van die aantal besmette nodes in figuur 2 (B) is naby aan figuur 2 (C). So, dit wys daarop dat PHH impak op die dinamiese van epidemies minder as PHT. Gevolg van die figuur 3 is soortgelyk aan die gevolg van figuur 2, PHH steeds minder impak op epidemies.
Ons volgende oorweeg die effek van Virus inaktivering. Figuur 4 toon die impak van die virus inaktivering van die epidemie grootte. Die epidemie grootte word gedefinieer as die maksimum aantal besmette nodes. Ons het gevind dat TV toename as epidemie vergroot, sodat die epidemie grootte is 'n funksie van die TV. In figuur 4 (beide die boonste en onderste), die epidemie groottes vinnig toeneem teen 'n hoë waarskynlikheid transmissie. Terwyl die resultate van lae transmissie waarskynlikheid, PHT = 0,3 en 0,3 PHH =, toon die epidemie grootte selde verander. Hierdie resultate bevestig dat TV het minder belangrik is vir die verspreiding van uitbreek by 'n lae waarskynlikheid oordrag, terwyl op 'n hoë waarskynlikheid oordrag, TV het meer belangrik is. Die resultaat van figuur 4 bevestig die resultate van figuur 2 en figuur 3. Wanneer PHT verhoog, die aantal besmette nodes en die epidemie grootte vinnig toeneem. In teenstelling, wanneer PHH verhoog die aantal besmette nodes en die epidemie grootte bly onveranderd. Dus, PHT is meer belangrik vir die spoed van die verspreiding en grootte epidemie as PHH.