Fertility
Age-specific fertility Rates were estimated and projected for Women Aged 14 to 54 in Five Nativity,
Race and Hispanic origin groups. These Rates are based on birth registration Data compiled by the
National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) in conjunction with Data from the Census Bureau's
intercensal Estimates, Decennial Censuses, and the ACS.
Final birth registration Data from NCHS for the years 1,990th to the 2011th were. used as the numerators in
our Rates fertility. These Data contain Demographic information About the Mother, including Her
Race, Age at the time of Delivery, Hispanic origin, and Country of birth.
Because our assumptions are based on historical Trends, Some adjustments were Made to ensure
uniformity in Race Reporting Across the years. . In particular, single-Race categories consistent with
the 1977 Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Standards for Data on Race and ethnicity were
used, including Asian or Pacific Islander of the superseded Category (API). These Data were
categorized Into Four groups of Race for the Mother - White, Black, American Indian or Alaska
Native (AIAN), and API - and Two categories for Hispanic origin -Hispanic and Not Hispanic.
For this Series of projections, fertility Rates were. also assumed to differ depending on the Mother's
Country of birth. A dichotomous Variable was used to differentiate Native mothers, those Born in the
United States or in US Territories, from those Elsewhere Born. Births to non-Residents were
excluded from the Series.2
For 2,012 and 2,013, Final Data from NCHS birth were not available at the time of Production,
however, a total Preliminary Number of births for each year was available. In Order to incorporate
the Most recent Trends in fertility in the time Series for the 2,014 National projections, a short-term
2 Non-Residents are defined as persons whose reported State of Residence is Notone of the 50 States or the
District of Columbia.
3.
Projection method was used for 2012 and 2013, where the total births for these Yearswere
Distributed by maternal Age, Race, Hispanic origin, and Nativity based on the Distribution of these
characteristics in the 2011 birth Data.
The denominators used to Calculate the fertility Rates were. derived from the intercensal estimates
for the 2,009th to one thousand nine hundred and ninety years and the Vintage 2013 population estimates for in 2010 to 2013. population
estimates for Women Aged 14 to 54 were coded in the Same Race and Hispanicorigin groupings
used for the births. Intercensal estimates were available only by the Four Races prior to 2000. For
the period from the 2000th to 2013, estimates were produced for a total of 31 groups Race consistent
with the OMB revised Standards for Data on Race and ethnicity (Office of Management and Budget,.
1 997), however, Tomaintain continuity of the estimates Across the time Series, bridged Race
estimates were used for two thousand to 2,013.3
Because the Census Bureau's estimates do not distribute the population on the basis of Nativity,
proportions of Native and Second-Born Women Within Age. , Race, and Hispanic origin groups from
the 2000 Decennial Censuses and the 1,990th and the 2 001 to the 2012th year single-Files were ACS Applied to
the estimates for those Years.4Annual estimates of the Nativity by Resident population were not
available for the period from 1991 to. 1999. A linear interpolation of the proportion of Native-Born
Women in 1990 and 2,000 between the Censuses was used to create proportions of Native-Born
Women in the years for which no Data were available. Applied proportions were then computed to
the population estimates in these years to create a time Series of Women Aged 14 to 54 by Race,
Hispanic origin, and Nativity.
Groups Displaying similar fertility Rates and Trends throughout the time Serieswere aggregated. For
the purposes of these projections, Rates were produced for Three Second-Born groups: (1) Hispanic,
(2) non-Hispanic API, and (3) non-Hispanic Other; and Two Native-Born groups: (1) API. (includes
both Hispanic and non-Hispanic) and (2) all others.
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