On the River Nile, a Move to Avert a Conflict Over WaterEthiopia’s pla การแปล - On the River Nile, a Move to Avert a Conflict Over WaterEthiopia’s pla อังกฤษ วิธีการพูด

On the River Nile, a Move to Avert

On the River Nile, a Move to
Avert a Conflict Over Water
Ethiopia’s plans to build Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Nile have sparked tensions with Egypt, which depends on the river to irrigate its arid land. But after years of tensions, an international agreement to share the Nile’s waters may be in sight.
BY FRED PEARCE

For thousands of years, Egyptians have depended on the waters of the Nile flowing out of the Ethiopian highlands and central Africa. It is the world’s longest river, passing through 11 countries, but without its waters the most downstream of those nations, Egypt, is a barren desert. So when, in 2011, Ethiopia began to build a giant hydroelectric dam across the river’s largest tributary, the Blue Nile, it looked like Egypt might carry out its long-standing threat to go to war to protect its lifeline.

But last weekend, all appeared to change. Ministers from Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan agreed on the basis for a deal for managing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which would be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa. So is peace about to break out on the River Nile? Longtime Nile observers are warning that a dispute that has lasted for a century may not end so easily.

Some 8,000 Ethiopian construction workers are currently at work building the Ethiopian dam at a site close to where the Blue Nile crosses into Sudan, before joining the White Nile and heading on to Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea. The scheme currently is about a third completed. Ethiopia says the dam is essential to its own economic development, while Egypt has called for construction to halt.

It looked like a stalemate until Sudanese foreign minister Ali Karti emerged from a week of talks with his counterparts from Ethiopia and Egypt in Khartoum to declare that “a full agreement has been reached ... on the principles of the use of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.” The agreement would be submitted to their respective heads of state for approval, he said, calling it “the beginning of a new page in relations between our three countries.”

So far, so good. A water war seemed to have been averted. But Karti gave no further details of what the agreement contained. And analysts involved in the negotiations point out that secretive land deals for irrigation projects in Sudan could scupper the new accord.

It is hard to overstate the importance of the Nile to Egypt. The river is the only source of water for 40 million farmers irrigating their fields in a desert nation. Turbines in Egypt’s own barrier, the High Aswan dam, also generate electricity for portions of the country.

But Egypt is at the bottom of the river. There are ten other nations further upstream, of which the largest is Ethiopia. A colonial-era treaty gives Egypt most of the river’s flow. But since it gives no upstream nations other than Sudan any share at all, those nations don’t recognize it.

A rival power with an even bigger dam upstream could be disastrous for Egypt, which, in the past, has threatened to go to war if Ethiopia ever barricaded the Nile. The threat worked until 2011. Then, at the height of the chaos of the Arab Spring, when the Egyptian government was preoccupied with its own survival, Ethiopia without warning began building what is set to be the world’s eighth largest hydroelectric dam. The question then became: How would Egypt respond?

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will flood 1,700 square kilometers of forest and bush close to Ethiopia’s border with Sudan. The dam would more than double the country’s electricity generating capacity, leaving spare power to be exported to neighbors on a planned east Africa power grid. At a cost of almost $5 billion, it is a huge national endeavor for a poor country. To make the dream come true, civil servants in Ethiopia are being encouraged to devote at least a month of their wages every year to buying bonds to help fund the project.

“GERD is part of a larger social movement against poverty,” says Mulugeta Gebrehiwot, a former military and political leader in Addis Ababa, who is now a fellow at the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University. “It has a symbolic impact in demystifying the fight against poverty – even a shoeshine boy can take part in building it by contributing coins and buying bonds that start at five U.S. dollars.”

Some of the hopes may be far-fetched. The dam will have turbines capable of generating 6,000 megawatts of power, making it Africa’s largest hydroelectric project. But outside experts believe it will rarely be able to generate so much, because there will not be enough water flowing in the river. One said: “They will only be able to get 6,000 MW for 1 percent of the time; 3,000 MW would have been better.”

The Ethiopian government says the dam is no threat to Egypt. It is a hydroelectric dam, designed to catch water and pass it on downstream through turbines. The country has no plans to divert water for irrigation, the government says. But one American expert on the Nile – who spoke last week on condition of anonymity, since he was advising all sides in the talks – warned that Egypt has two reasons for concern.

The first concern is short-term: What happens while the reservoir behind the dam is being filled? The dam will be able to hold back more than a year's flow of the Blue Nile as it leaves Ethiopia. In theory, while filling the reservoir for the first time, Ethiopia could cut off the entire flow for that year. Even filling over five years would significantly impact Egypt, especially if they are dry years.

Yale Environment 360 has learned that the preliminary agreement reached in Khartoum last week sets rules for how quickly Ethiopia can fill the dam. It also appoints independent consultants to arbitrate on key technical issues. A previous international panel of experts, appointed with the approval of Ethiopia, had reported in 2013 that there were numerous gaps in the hydrological analysis of the impact of the dam downstream.

The second concern for Egypt is that the dam will allow Sudan to massively increase the amount of water that it can take out of the river for irrigation. This is because most of the Blue Nile’s flow comes in a few weeks of the year, after monsoon rains in the Ethiopian highlands. Sudan’s own dam on the Blue Nile, the Roseires dam, is small and only provides water for a few months, says Alex de Waal of the World Peace Foundation, who is an expert on Sudanese hydro-politics. But the Ethiopian dam will deliver a year-long flow downstream through its turbines and across the border. With that, Sudanese farmers will be able to abstract water for year-round irrigation of crops. “The Sudanese government is already selling land leases
for new farmland that will be irrigated when the Grand Renaissance Dam is completed,” says de Waal.

If that happened, less water would end up flowing through Sudan and on into Egypt. That would mean less irrigation water for Egyptian farmers and less hydroelectricity for its cities. It is unclear whether the new agreement made last week addresses this issue.

The disputes between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the waters of the Blue Nile are only part of the problem on the Nile. There are 11 nations along the river’s banks, but no agreement on sharing its waters. The only treaty was created by the British when they still held sway in the area. The 1959 Nile Waters Agreement allocated 55.5 cubic kilometers to Egypt, 18.5 cubic kilometers to Sudan — and none to anyone else. Unsurprisingly, those upstream nations excluded from the share-out do not accept the validity of the treaty.

In 2010, five of them — Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania — signed the Entebbe agreement, calling for a redistribution of the waters to include them. Burundi later also joined. But Egypt and Sudan rejected the call. (Apart from Ethiopia, all these nations are along the river’s second major tributary, the White Nile. This smaller, though longer, tributary rises in the highlands of central Africa, before collecting in Lake Victoria and flowing north through South Sudan to Sudan, where it joins the Blue Nile at Khartoum.)

These upstream countries see Egypt taking the great majority of the Nile’s flow. In fact, Egypt currently takes even more water than it is entitled to under the 1959 agreement. This is because Sudan, having never built enough dams to capture its allocated flow, takes only 12.5 cubic kilometers, or two-thirds of its entitlement. Every year, Egypt tops up its official entitlement by taking the other third, which amounts to 6 cubic kilometers. But, thanks to the Renaissance dam, Sudan could soon be abstracting its full entitlement and potentially much more. So Egypt’s days of relying on most of the Nile’s water reaching its territory could be numbered.

But as the most populous nation in North Africa, Egypt won’t give up easily. And here a new actor joins the story: the new state of South Sudan.

When the 1959 treaty was signed, Sudan was a single country. But in 2011 it divided in two. The new state of South Sudan occupies a long stretch of the White Nile. Yet bizarrely, when the two countries divided, no mention
was made of whether or not South Sudan should get a share of the 1959 treaty rights to the Nile’s flow. “The cooperation agreements between Sudan and South Sudan covered just about everything, but not the Nile waters,” says de Waal.

So Egypt has spotted a chance. Last November, it signed an agreement with South Sudan “to develop water resources in the South Sudan state and a joint cooperation strategy that would preserve the historic right of Egypt.” This is being interpreted as encouraging South Sudan to assert its entitlement to a share of the Nile, which Egypt would then buy from the new nation.

Central to the plan, according to de Waal, is reviving an old engineering project to increase the flow of the White Nile by diverting it away fr
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On the River Nile, a Move to Avert a Conflict Over WaterEthiopia's plans to build Africa's largest hydroelectric dam on the Nile have sparked tensions with Egypt, which depends on the river to irrigate its arid land. But after years of tensions, an international agreement to share the Nile's waters may be in sight.BY FRED PEARCEFor thousands of years, Egyptians have depended on the waters of the Nile flowing out of the Ethiopian highlands and central Africa. It is the world's longest river, passing through 11 countries, but without its waters the most downstream of those nations, Egypt, is a barren desert. So when, in 2011, Ethiopia began to build a giant hydroelectric dam across the river's largest tributary, the Blue Nile, it looked like Egypt might carry out its long-standing threat to go to war to protect its lifeline.But last weekend, all appeared to change. Ministers from Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan agreed on the basis for a deal for managing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which would be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa. So is peace about to break out on the River Nile? Longtime Nile observers are warning that a dispute that has lasted for a century may not end so easily. Some 8,000 Ethiopian construction workers are currently at work building the Ethiopian dam at a site close to where the Blue Nile crosses into Sudan, before joining the White Nile and heading on to Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea. The scheme currently is about a third completed. Ethiopia says the dam is essential to its own economic development, while Egypt has called for construction to halt. It looked like a stalemate until Sudanese foreign minister Ali Karti emerged from a week of talks with his counterparts from Ethiopia and Egypt in Khartoum to declare that "a full agreement has been reached ... on the principles of the use of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam." The agreement would be submitted to their respective heads of state for approval, he said, calling it "the beginning of a new page in relations between our three countries." So far, so good. A water war seemed to have been averted. But Karti gave no further details of what the agreement contained. And analysts involved in the negotiations point out that secretive land deals for irrigation projects in Sudan could scupper the new accord. It is hard to overstate the importance of the Nile to Egypt. The river is the only source of water for 40 million farmers irrigating their fields in a desert nation. Turbines in Egypt's own barrier, the High Aswan dam, also generate electricity for portions of the country. But Egypt is at the bottom of the river. There are ten other nations further upstream, of which the largest is Ethiopia. A colonial-era treaty gives Egypt most of the river's flow. But since it gives no upstream nations other than Sudan any share at all, those nations don't recognize it. A rival power with an even bigger dam upstream could be disastrous for Egypt, which, in the past, has threatened to go to war if Ethiopia ever barricaded the Nile. The threat worked until 2011. Then, at the height of the chaos of the Arab Spring, when the Egyptian government was preoccupied with its own survival, Ethiopia without warning began building what is set to be the world's eighth largest hydroelectric dam. The question then became: How would Egypt respond? The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will flood 1,700 square kilometers of forest and bush close to Ethiopia's border with Sudan. The dam would more than double the country's electricity generating capacity, leaving spare power to be exported to neighbors on a planned east Africa power grid. At a cost of almost $5 billion, it is a huge national endeavor for a poor country. To make the dream come true, civil servants in Ethiopia are being encouraged to devote at least a month of their wages every year to buying bonds to help fund the project. "GERD is part of a larger social movement against poverty," says Mulugeta Gebrehiwot, a former military and political leader in Addis Ababa, who is now a fellow at the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University. "It has a symbolic impact in demystifying the fight against poverty – even a shoeshine boy can take part in building it by contributing coins and buying bonds that start at five U.S. dollars." Some of the hopes may be far-fetched. The dam will have turbines capable of generating 6,000 megawatts of power, making it Africa's largest hydroelectric project. But outside experts believe it will rarely be able to generate so much, because there will not be enough water flowing in the river. One said: "They will only be able to get 6,000 MW for 1 percent of the time; 3,000 MW would have been better." The Ethiopian government says the dam is no threat to Egypt. It is a hydroelectric dam, designed to catch water and pass it on downstream through turbines. The country has no plans to divert water for irrigation, the government says. But one American expert on the Nile – who spoke last week on condition of anonymity, since he was advising all sides in the talks – warned that Egypt has two reasons for concern. The first concern is short-term: What happens while the reservoir behind the dam is being filled? The dam will be able to hold back more than a year's flow of the Blue Nile as it leaves Ethiopia. In theory, while filling the reservoir for the first time, Ethiopia could cut off the entire flow for that year. Even filling over five years would significantly impact Egypt, especially if they are dry years. Yale Environment 360 has learned that the preliminary agreement reached in Khartoum last week sets rules for how quickly Ethiopia can fill the dam. It also appoints independent consultants to arbitrate on key technical issues. A previous international panel of experts, appointed with the approval of Ethiopia, had reported in 2013 that there were numerous gaps in the hydrological analysis of the impact of the dam downstream. The second concern for Egypt is that the dam will allow Sudan to massively increase the amount of water that it can take out of the river for irrigation. This is because most of the Blue Nile's flow comes in a few weeks of the year, after monsoon rains in the Ethiopian highlands. Sudan's own dam on the Blue Nile, the Roseires dam, is small and only provides water for a few months, says Alex de Waal of the World Peace Foundation, who is an expert on Sudanese hydro-politics. But the Ethiopian dam will deliver a year-long flow downstream through its turbines and across the border. With that, Sudanese farmers will be able to abstract water for year-round irrigation of crops. "The Sudanese government is already selling land leasesfor new farmland that will be irrigated when the Grand Renaissance Dam is completed," says de Waal. If that happened, less water would end up flowing through Sudan and on into Egypt. That would mean less irrigation water for Egyptian farmers and less hydroelectricity for its cities. It is unclear whether the new agreement made last week addresses this issue. The disputes between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the waters of the Blue Nile are only part of the problem on the Nile. There are 11 nations along the river's banks, but no agreement on sharing its waters. The only treaty was created by the British when they still held sway in the area. The 1959 Nile Waters Agreement allocated 55.5 cubic kilometers to Egypt, 18.5 cubic kilometers to Sudan — and none to anyone else. Unsurprisingly, those upstream nations excluded from the share-out do not accept the validity of the treaty. In 2010, five of them — Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania — signed the Entebbe agreement, calling for a redistribution of the waters to include them. Burundi later also joined. But Egypt and Sudan rejected the call. (Apart from Ethiopia, all these nations are along the river's second major tributary, the White Nile. This smaller, though longer, tributary rises in the highlands of central Africa, before collecting in Lake Victoria and flowing north through South Sudan to Sudan, where it joins the Blue Nile at Khartoum.) These upstream countries see Egypt taking the great majority of the Nile's flow. In fact, Egypt currently takes even more water than it is entitled to under the 1959 agreement. This is because Sudan, having never built enough dams to capture its allocated flow, takes only 12.5 cubic kilometers, or two-thirds of its entitlement. Every year, Egypt tops up its official entitlement by taking the other third, which amounts to 6 cubic kilometers. But, thanks to the Renaissance dam, Sudan could soon be abstracting its full entitlement and potentially much more. So Egypt's days of relying on most of the Nile's water reaching its territory could be numbered. But as the most populous nation in North Africa, Egypt won't give up easily. And here a new actor joins the story: the new state of South Sudan. When the 1959 treaty was signed, Sudan was a single country. But in 2011 it divided in two. The new state of South Sudan occupies a long stretch of the White Nile. Yet bizarrely, when the two countries divided, no mentionwas made of whether or not South Sudan should get a share of the 1959 treaty rights to the Nile's flow. "The cooperation agreements between Sudan and South Sudan covered just about everything, but not the Nile waters," says de Waal. So Egypt has spotted a chance. Last November, it signed an agreement with South Sudan "to develop water resources in the South Sudan state and a joint cooperation strategy that would preserve the historic right of Egypt." This is being interpreted as encouraging South Sudan to assert its entitlement to a share of the Nile, which Egypt would then buy from the new nation. Central to the plan, according to de Waal, is reviving an old engineering project to increase the flow of the White Nile by diverting it away fr
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On the River Nile, a Move to
Avert a Conflict Over Water
's plans Ethiopia to Build Africa's largest hydroelectric Dam on the Nile have sparked tensions with Egypt, which depends on the River to Irrigate its arid Land. But after years of tensions, an International Agreement to share the Nile's Waters May be in Sight.
BY FRED PEARCE For thousands of years, Egyptians have depended on the Waters of the Nile flowing out of the Ethiopian Highlands and Central Africa. It is the world's longest river, passing through 11 countries, but without its waters the most downstream of those nations, Egypt, is a barren desert. So when, in 2,011th, Ethiopia began to Build a Giant hydroelectric Dam Across the River's largest tributary, the Blue Nile, it looked like Egypt Might Carry out its long-standing Threat to Go to War to Protect its Lifeline. But last weekend, all. appeared to change. Ministers from Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan agreed on the basis for a deal for managing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which would be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa. So is peace about to break out on the River Nile? Longtime Nile observers are warning that a dispute that has lasted for a Century May not End so easily. Some 8,000 Ethiopian Construction Workers are currently at Work Building the Ethiopian Dam at a Site close to where the Blue Nile crosses Into Sudan, before joining the White. Nile and heading on to Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea. The scheme currently is about a third completed. Ethiopia says the Dam is Essential to its own Economic Development, while Egypt has Called for Construction to halt. It looked like a Stalemate until Sudanese Second Minister Ali Karti emerged from a Week of talks with his counterparts from Ethiopia and Egypt in Khartoum to Declare that. "a full agreement has been reached ... on the principles of the use of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam." The agreement would be submitted to their respective heads of state for approval, he said, calling it "the beginning of a new page in. Relations between our countries Three. " So Far, so good. A water war seemed to have been averted. But Karti gave no further details of what the agreement contained. And analysts involved in the negotiations Point out that Land Secretive deals for IRRIGATION Projects in Sudan could Scupper the New Accord. It is hard to Overstate the importance of the Nile to Egypt. The river is the only source of water for 40 million farmers irrigating their fields in a desert nation. Barrier's own turbines in Egypt, the High Aswan Dam, also Generate Electricity for Portions of the Country. But Egypt is at the bottom of the River. There are ten other nations further upstream, of which the largest is Ethiopia. A colonial-era treaty gives Egypt most of the river's flow. But since it gives no upstream Nations Sudan Other than any share at all, do not recognize those Nations it. A rival with an even Bigger Power Dam upstream could be disastrous for Egypt, which, in the Past, has threatened to Go to War. if Ethiopia ever barricaded the Nile. The threat worked until 2011. Then, at the height of the chaos of the Arab Spring, when the Egyptian government was preoccupied with its own survival, Ethiopia without warning began building what is set to be the world's eighth largest hydroelectric dam. The question then became: How Egypt would respond? The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Will Flood 1,700 square Kilometers of Forest and Bush close to Ethiopia's Border with Sudan. The dam would more than double the country's electricity generating capacity, leaving spare power to be exported to neighbors on a planned east Africa power grid. At a cost of almost $ 5 billion, it is a huge national endeavor for a poor country. To Make the Dream Come true, Civil Servants in Ethiopia are being encouraged to devote at Least a month of their wages every year to Buying bonds to Help Fund the Project. "GERD is Part of a larger social Movement against Poverty," says Mulugeta Gebrehiwot. , a former military and political leader in Addis Ababa, who is now a fellow at the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University. "It has a symbolic Impact in the Fight against Poverty demystifying - even a shoeshine Boy Can take Part in Building it by Contributing Coins and Start Buying bonds at that Five US dollars." Some of the Far-fetched hopes May be. The dam will have turbines capable of generating 6,000 megawatts of power, making it Africa's largest hydroelectric project. But outside experts believe it will rarely be able to generate so much, because there will not be enough water flowing in the river. One said: "They will only be able to get 6,000 MW for 1 percent of the time; 3,000 MW would have been better. " The Ethiopian Government says the Dam is no Threat to Egypt. It is a hydroelectric dam, designed to catch water and pass it on downstream through turbines. The country has no plans to divert water for irrigation, the government says. But one American Expert on the Nile - Who spoke last Week on condition of anonymity, since He was advising all sides in the talks - warned that Egypt has Two reasons for Concern. The First Concern is short-term: What Happens while the Reservoir Behind. the dam is being filled? The dam will be able to hold back more than a year's flow of the Blue Nile as it leaves Ethiopia. In theory, while filling the reservoir for the first time, Ethiopia could cut off the entire flow for that year. Five years would significantly Impact even filling over Egypt, especially if they are Dry years. Yale Environment 360 has learned that the Preliminary Agreement reached in Khartoum last Week sets Rules for How Quickly Can Ethiopia fill the Dam. It also appoints independent consultants to arbitrate on key technical issues. A previous International Panel of Experts, appointed with the Approval of Ethiopia, had reported in the 2,013th that there were numerous gaps in the hydrological Analysis of the Impact of the Dam downstream. The Second Concern for Egypt is that the Dam Will Allow Sudan to Massively increase. the amount of water that it can take out of the river for irrigation. This is because most of the Blue Nile's flow comes in a few weeks of the year, after monsoon rains in the Ethiopian highlands. Sudan's own dam on the Blue Nile, the Roseires dam, is small and only provides water for a few months, says Alex de Waal of the World Peace Foundation, who is an expert on Sudanese hydro-politics. But the Ethiopian dam will deliver a year-long flow downstream through its turbines and across the border. With that, Sudanese farmers will be able to abstract water for year-round irrigation of crops. "The Sudanese Government is already selling Land leases for New Farmland Will that be irrigated when the Grand Renaissance Dam is completed, "says de Waal. If that happened, would less Water flowing Through End up on Into Egypt and Sudan. That would mean less irrigation water for Egyptian farmers and less hydroelectricity for its cities. It is unclear whether the New Agreement addresses this Issue Made last Week. The Disputes between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Blue Waters of the Nile are only Part of the Problem on the Nile. There are 11 nations along the river's banks, but no agreement on sharing its waters. The only treaty was created by the British when they still held sway in the area. The 1959 Nile Waters Agreement allocated 55.5 cubic kilometers to Egypt, 18.5 cubic kilometers to Sudan - and none to anyone else. Unsurprisingly, those upstream Nations excluded from the share-out do not accept the validity of the Treaty. In 2,010, Five of them - Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania - signed the Entebbe Agreement, Calling for a Redistribution of the Waters. to include them. Burundi later also joined. But Egypt and Sudan rejected the call. (Apart from Ethiopia, all these nations are along the river's second major tributary, the White Nile. This smaller, though longer, tributary rises in the highlands of central Africa, before collecting in Lake Victoria and flowing north through South Sudan to Sudan, where. it joins the Blue Nile at Khartoum.) These countries upstream See Egypt taking the majority of the Great Nile's flow. In fact, Egypt currently takes even more water than it is entitled to under the 1959 agreement. This is because Sudan, having never built enough dams to capture its allocated flow, takes only 12.5 cubic kilometers, or two-thirds of its entitlement. Every year, Egypt tops up its official entitlement by taking the other third, which amounts to 6 cubic kilometers. But, thanks to the Renaissance dam, Sudan could soon be abstracting its full entitlement and potentially much more. So Egypt's days of Relying on Most of the Nile's Water reaching its Territory could be numbered. But as the Most populous Nation in North Africa, Egypt Will not give up easily. And here a New actor joins the Story: the New State of South Sudan. When the 1959 Treaty was signed, Sudan was a single Country. But in 2011 divided in two. The new state of South Sudan occupies a long stretch of the White Nile. Yet bizarrely, when the Two countries divided, no mention was whether or not South Sudan should Made of a share of the Get the 1,959th Treaty rights to the Nile's flow. "The Cooperation Agreements between Sudan and South Sudan About everything just covered, but not the Nile Waters," says de Waal. So Egypt has spotted a Chance. Last November, it signed an agreement with South Sudan "to develop water resources in the South Sudan state and a joint cooperation strategy that would preserve the historic right of Egypt." This is being interpreted as encouraging South Sudan to assert its entitlement to a share. of the Nile, which Egypt would then buy from the New Nation. Central to the Plan, according to de Waal, is reviving an Old Engineering Project to increase the flow of the White Nile by diverting it Away FR.















































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On the River Nile a Move, to
Avert a Conflict Over Water
Ethiopia 's plans to build Africa s largest hydroelectric dam.' On the Nile have sparked tensions, with Egypt which depends on the river to irrigate its arid land. But after years, of tensions. An international agreement to share the Nile 's waters may be in sight.
BY FRED PEARCE

For thousands, of yearsEgyptians have depended on the waters of the Nile flowing out of the Ethiopian highlands and central Africa. It is the. World ', s longest river passing through 11 countries but without, its waters the most downstream of those nations Egypt,,, Is a barren desert. So when in, began, 2011 Ethiopia to build a giant hydroelectric dam across the river ', s largest tributary. The, Blue NileIt looked like Egypt might carry out its long-standing threat to go to war to protect its lifeline.

But, last weekend. All appeared to change. Ministers, from Egypt Ethiopia and Sudan, agreed on the basis for a deal for managing the Grand. Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which would, be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa. So is peace about to break out on the. River Nile?Longtime Nile observers are warning that a dispute that has lasted for a century may not end so easily.

, Some 8 000 Ethiopian. Construction workers are currently at work building the Ethiopian dam at a site close to where the Blue Nile crosses into. Sudan before joining, the White Nile and heading on to Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea. The scheme currently is about a. Third completed.Ethiopia says the dam is essential to its own economic development while Egypt, has called for construction to halt.

It. Looked like a stalemate until Sudanese foreign minister Ali Karti emerged from a week of talks with his counterparts from. Ethiopia and Egypt in Khartoum to declare that "a full agreement has been reached... On the principles of the use of the. Ethiopian Renaissance Dam."The agreement would be submitted to their respective heads of state, for approval he said calling it, the beginning." Of a new page in relations between our three countries. "

So, far so good. A water war seemed to have been averted. But. Karti gave no further details of what the agreement contained.And analysts involved in the negotiations point out that secretive land deals for irrigation projects in Sudan could scupper. The new accord.

It is hard to overstate the importance of the Nile to Egypt. The river is the only source of water for 40 million. Farmers irrigating their fields in a desert nation. Turbines in Egypt ', s own barrier the High, Aswan damAlso generate electricity for portions of the country.

But Egypt is at the bottom of the river. There are ten other nations. Further upstream of which, the largest is Ethiopia. A colonial-era treaty gives Egypt most of the river 's flow. But since. It gives no upstream nations other than Sudan any share at all those nations, don 't recognize it.

.A rival power with an even bigger dam upstream could be disastrous for Egypt which in the past,,, threatened has to go. To war if Ethiopia ever barricaded the Nile. The threat worked until 2011. Then at the, height of the chaos of the Arab. Spring when the, Egyptian government was preoccupied with its, own survivalEthiopia without warning began building what is set to be the world 's eighth largest hydroelectric dam. The question then. Became: How would Egypt respond?

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), will flood 1 700 square kilometers of forest. And Bush close to Ethiopia 's border with Sudan. The dam would more than double the country' s electricity, generating capacityLeaving spare power to be exported to neighbors on a planned East Africa power grid. At a cost of almost $5 billion it,, Is a huge national endeavor for a poor country. To make the dream come true civil servants, in Ethiopia are being encouraged. To devote at least a month of their wages every year to buying bonds to help fund the project.

."GERD is part of a larger social movement against poverty," says Mulugeta Gebrehiwot a former, military and political leader. In, Addis Ababa who is now a fellow at the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University. "It has a symbolic impact in demystifying. The fight against poverty - even a shoeshine boy can take part in building it by contributing coins and buying bonds that. Start at five U.S.Dollars. "

Some of the hopes may be far-fetched. The dam will have turbines capable of generating 6 000 megawatts of power,,, Making it Africa 's largest hydroelectric project. But outside experts believe it will rarely be able to generate, so much. Because there will not be enough water flowing in the river. One said: "They will only be able to, get 6 000 MW for 1 percent. Of the, time; 3000 MW would have been better. "

The Ethiopian government says the dam is no threat to Egypt. It is a, hydroelectric dam. Designed to catch water and pass it on downstream through turbines. The country has no plans to divert water, for irrigation. The government says. But one American expert on the Nile - who spoke last week on condition, of anonymitySince he was advising all sides in the talks - warned that Egypt has two reasons for concern.

The first concern is short-term:? What happens while the reservoir behind the dam is being filled? The dam will be able to hold back more than a year s flow. ' Of the Blue Nile as it leaves Ethiopia. In theory while filling, the reservoir for the, first timeEthiopia could cut off the entire flow for that year. Even filling over five years would significantly, impact Egypt especially. If they are dry years.

Yale Environment 360 has learned that the preliminary agreement reached in Khartoum last week sets. Rules for how quickly Ethiopia can fill the dam. It also appoints independent consultants to arbitrate on key technical. Issues.A previous international panel, of experts appointed with the approval of Ethiopia had reported, in 2013 that there were. Numerous gaps in the hydrological analysis of the impact of the dam downstream.

The second concern for Egypt is that the. Dam will allow Sudan to massively increase the amount of water that it can take out of the river for irrigation.This is because most of the Blue Nile 's flow comes in a few weeks of, the year after monsoon rains in the Ethiopian, highlands. Sudan 's own dam on the Blue Nile the dam, Roseires, small is and only provides water for a, few months says Alex de Waal. Of the World Peace Foundation who is, an expert on Sudanese hydro-politics.But the Ethiopian dam will deliver a year-long flow downstream through its turbines and across the border. With that Sudanese,, Farmers will be able to abstract water for year-round irrigation of crops. "The Sudanese government is already selling land. Leases
for new farmland that will be irrigated when the Grand Renaissance Dam is completed, "says de Waal.

If, that happenedLess water would end up flowing through Sudan and on into Egypt. That would mean less irrigation water for Egyptian farmers. And less hydroelectricity for its cities. It is unclear whether the new agreement made last week addresses this issue.

The. Disputes, between Egypt Sudan and Ethiopia, over the waters of the Blue Nile are only part of the problem on the Nile.There are 11 nations along the river ', s banks but no agreement on sharing its waters. The only treaty was created by the. British when they still held sway in the area. The 1959 Nile Waters Agreement allocated 55.5 cubic kilometers to Egypt 18.5 cubic,, Kilometers to Sudan - and none to anyone, Unsurprisingly else.Those upstream nations excluded from the share-out do not accept the validity of the treaty.

, In 2010 five of them - Ethiopia Kenya Uganda,,,, Rwanda and Tanzania - signed the Entebbe agreement calling for, a redistribution of the waters. To include them. Burundi later also joined. But Egypt and Sudan rejected the call. (Apart, from EthiopiaAll these nations are along the river 's second major tributary the White, Nile. This smaller though longer tributary,,, Rises in the highlands of central Africa before collecting, in Lake Victoria and flowing north through South Sudan, to Sudan. Where it joins the Blue Nile at Khartoum.)

These upstream countries see Egypt taking the great majority of the Nile s. ' Flow, In fact.Egypt currently takes even more water than it is entitled to under the 1959 agreement. This is because Sudan having never,, Built enough dams to capture its, allocated flow takes only 12.5 cubic kilometers or two-thirds, of its entitlement. Every. Year Egypt tops, up its official entitlement by taking the, other third which amounts to 6 cubic kilometers. But thanks,, To the, Renaissance damSudan could soon be abstracting its full entitlement and potentially much more. So Egypt 's days of relying on most of the. Nile 's water reaching its territory could be numbered.

But as the most populous nation in North Africa Egypt won, t give.' Up easily. And here a new actor joins the story: the new state of South Sudan.

When the 1959 treaty, was signed Sudan. Was a single country.But in 2011 it divided in two. The new state of South Sudan occupies a long stretch of the White Nile. Yet bizarrely when,, The two, countries divided no mention
was made of whether or not South Sudan should get a share of the 1959 treaty rights. To the Nile 's flow. "The cooperation agreements between Sudan and South Sudan covered just, about everything but not the. Nile waters, "says de Waal.
.
So Egypt has spotted a chance. Last November it signed, an agreement with South Sudan "to develop water resources in the. South Sudan state and a joint cooperation strategy that would preserve the historic right of Egypt. "This is being interpreted. As encouraging South Sudan to assert its entitlement to a share of the Nile which Egypt, would then buy from the new, nation.

Central to, the planAccording to de Waal is reviving, an old engineering project to increase the flow of the White Nile by diverting it away. Fr.
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