Qatar’s short-term political risk profile remains among the most stable in the region. Despite enjoying little in the way of democratic freedom, Qataris benefit from massive hydrocarbon wealth which is spread generously across the country’s native population and enjoy the hihest per capita GDP in the world. A small population – andone without much inclination to protest against the government –will keep the country insulated from large-scale public unrest in the immediate term.
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani became the new ruler of Qatarin June 2013, in a peaceful handover from his father, Sheikh Hamadbin Khalifa. The 33-year old Emir’s first public address and thecomposition of his new cabinet suggest that policy continuity willbe the order of the day, in line with our view.
Strong growth in the non-hydrocarbon economy, stemming from extensive construction activity and the rapid expansion of the services sector, will drive economic activity over 2014 and 2015. We forecast real GDP of 5.4% this year and 4.9% in 2015, from an estimated5.7% in 2013.
Key Risks To Outlook
Given the economy’s heavy reliance on the hydrocarbon sector,a pronounced global economic downturn – if it were to translateinto a sustained drop-off in demand for oil and gas – could impactnegatively on our forecasts for Qatar’s external account position,budget and growth outlook. That said, we highlight that the country’sUS$115bn sovereign wealth fund – as well as its continuing abilityto tap international debt markets – provides the economy withsignificant bulwarks against these risks.
The Qatari government’s increasingly assertive foreign policy raisessome risks in relation to the outlook for regional political stability. Inparticular, we highlight the potential for the country’s foreign policyto provoke a backlash in the region and the danger that the governmentcould become bogged down in a drawn-out conflict in theMiddle East. The withdrawal of three GCC countries’ ambassadorsfrom Doha in March 2014 poses a further challenge.
The construction sector remains exposed to the potential for delaysand cost overruns, a factor that is increasing and unlikely to improveover the medium term
Qatar's short-term political risk profile remains among the most stable in the region. Despite enjoying little in the way of democratic freedom, Qataris benefit from massive hydrocarbon wealth which is spread generously across the country's native population and enjoy the hihest per capita GDP in the world. A small population – andone without much inclination to protest against the government –will keep the country insulated from large-scale public unrest in the immediate term.
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani became the new ruler of Qatarin June 2013, in a peaceful handover from his father, Sheikh Hamadbin Khalifa. The 33-year old Emir's first public address and thecomposition of his new cabinet suggest that policy continuity willbe the order of the day, in line with our view.
Strong growth in the non-hydrocarbon economy, stemming from extensive construction activity and the rapid expansion of the services sector, will drive economic activity over 2014 and 2015. We forecast real GDP of 5.4% this year and 4.9% in 2015, from an estimated5.7% in 2013.
Key Risks To Outlook
Given the economy's heavy reliance on the hydrocarbon sector,a pronounced global economic downturn – if it were to translateinto a sustained drop-off in demand for oil and gas – could impactnegatively on our forecasts for Qatar's external account position,budget and growth outlook. That said, we highlight that the country'sUS$115bn sovereign wealth fund – as well as its continuing abilityto tap international debt markets – provides the economy withsignificant bulwarks against these risks.
The Qatari government's increasingly assertive foreign policy raisessome risks in relation to the outlook for regional political stability. Inparticular, we highlight the potential for the country's foreign policyto provoke a backlash in the region and the danger that the governmentcould become bogged down in a drawn-out conflict in theMiddle East. The withdrawal of three GCC countries' ambassadorsfrom Doha in March 2014 poses a further challenge.
The construction sector remains exposed to the potential for delaysand cost overruns, a factor that is increasing and unlikely to improveover the medium term
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Qatar’s short-term political risk profile remains among the most stable in the region. Despite enjoying little in the way of democratic freedom, Qataris benefit from massive hydrocarbon wealth which is spread generously across the country’s native population and enjoy the hihest per capita GDP in the world. A small population – andone without much inclination to protest against the government –will keep the country insulated from large-scale public unrest in the immediate term.
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani became the new ruler of Qatarin June 2013, in a peaceful handover from his father, Sheikh Hamadbin Khalifa. The 33-year old Emir’s first public address and thecomposition of his new cabinet suggest that policy continuity willbe the order of the day, in line with our view.
Strong growth in the non-hydrocarbon economy, stemming from extensive construction activity and the rapid expansion of the services sector, will drive economic activity over 2014 and 2015. We forecast real GDP of 5.4% this year and 4.9% in 2015, from an estimated5.7% in 2013.
Key Risks To Outlook
Given the economy’s heavy reliance on the hydrocarbon sector,a pronounced global economic downturn – if it were to translateinto a sustained drop-off in demand for oil and gas – could impactnegatively on our forecasts for Qatar’s external account position,budget and growth outlook. That said, we highlight that the country’sUS$115bn sovereign wealth fund – as well as its continuing abilityto tap international debt markets – provides the economy withsignificant bulwarks against these risks.
The Qatari government’s increasingly assertive foreign policy raisessome risks in relation to the outlook for regional political stability. Inparticular, we highlight the potential for the country’s foreign policyto provoke a backlash in the region and the danger that the governmentcould become bogged down in a drawn-out conflict in theMiddle East. The withdrawal of three GCC countries’ ambassadorsfrom Doha in March 2014 poses a further challenge.
The construction sector remains exposed to the potential for delaysand cost overruns, a factor that is increasing and unlikely to improveover the medium term
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Qatar 's short-term political risk profile remains among the most stable in the region. Despite enjoying little in the way. Of democratic freedom Qataris benefit, from massive hydrocarbon wealth which is spread generously across the country s native. ' Population and enjoy the hihest per capita GDP in the world.A small population - andone without much inclination to protest against the government - will keep the country insulated. From large-scale public unrest in the immediate term.
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani became the new ruler of Qatarin, June 2013 in. A peaceful handover from, his father Sheikh Hamadbin Khalifa.The 33-year old Emir 's first public address and thecomposition of his new cabinet suggest that policy continuity willbe. The order of, the day in line with our view.
Strong growth in the, non-hydrocarbon economy stemming from extensive construction. Activity and the rapid expansion of the services sector will drive, economic activity over 2014 and 2015. We forecast real. GDP of 5.4% this year and 4.9%, in 2015 from an estimated5.7% in 2013.
Key Risks To Outlook
Given the economy s heavy reliance. ' On the hydrocarbon sector a pronounced, global economic downturn - if it were to translateinto a sustained drop-off in demand. For oil and gas - could impactnegatively on our forecasts for Qatar 's external account position budget and, growth outlook.? That, saidWe highlight that the country 'sUS $115bn sovereign wealth fund - as well as its continuing abilityto tap international. Debt markets - provides the economy withsignificant bulwarks against these risks.
The Qatari government s increasingly. ' Assertive foreign policy raisessome risks in relation to the outlook for regional political, Inparticular stability.We highlight the potential for the country 's foreign policyto provoke a backlash in the region and the danger that the. Governmentcould become bogged down in a drawn-out conflict in theMiddle East. The withdrawal of three GCC countries ambassadorsfrom. ' Doha in March 2014 poses a further challenge.
The construction sector remains exposed to the potential for delaysand cost. Overruns.A factor that is increasing and unlikely to improveover the medium term
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