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ผลลัพธ์ (อังกฤษ) 1:

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ผลลัพธ์ (อังกฤษ) 2:

Today, in comparison, the situation is not quite as bad. REIT balance sheets are stronger than ever before. The banking system is in much better shape. And while REITs are temporarily missing rent payments, they are not hit by a liquidity crunch that would force them to immediately cut dividends or issue equity.

The point is that things were much worse back in 2008-2009, and even then, REITs fully recovered in a short amount of time.

This brings us to today. Right now, many REITs are again trading at the same valuations as in 2008-2009. Here are three examples of REITs trading at their lowest valuations ever:

Example #1: Simon Property Group (SPG) is a Class A Mall REIT with an A-rated balance sheet, trading at 30 cents on the dollar, the deepest discount to NAV in its entire history. Just last year, SPG was hitting new record high sales per square foot and rents at its properties. It has a lot of pain ahead in the short run, but given that it has an A-rated balance sheet and years of liquidity, the risk of bankruptcy is very low. Insiders have bought more than $20 million in shares over the past weeks:


Source: TheTikr, data from SNL Financial

Example #2: EPR Properties (EPR) is an investment grade rated net lease REIT with a 20-year history of generating up to 3x greater returns than the rest of the market. Today, it trades at 40 cents on the dollar, a deeper discount than in 2008-2009. It owns a diverse portfolio of entertainment-related properties, which are suffering right now, but most importantly, it has a fortress balance sheet with over $1.5 billion in liquidity and no maturities before 2023. Even if no revenue was coming in for years, EPR could still survive, and as we put the crisis behind us, things will eventually normalize. EPR just authorized a $150 million share buyback program, representing 10% of its equity.


Example #3: Federal Reality Trust (FRT) is one of the bluest blue chips in the REIT sector with the longest track record of dividend growth at more than 50 years. It invests in the best-located mixed use properties in gateway markets. Its retail-centered assets are taking a hitting in the near term, but just like SPG, it also has an A-rated balance sheet so there is little concern about their survival. Priced at a ~40% discount to NAV, this is its lowest valuation ever:


These three REITs are trading at lower valuations than in 2008-2009, despite owning better assets and enjoying stronger balance sheets today.

Here is how they performed over the two-year period coming out of the last crisis:

ผลลัพธ์ (อังกฤษ) 3:

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