Models are useful tools for predict

Models are useful tools for predicting the impact of global change on species distribution and abundance.
As ectotherms, fish are being challenged to adapt or track changes in their environment, either in time
through a phenological shift or in space by a biogeographic shift. Past modelling efforts have largely been
based on correlative Species Distribution Models, which use known occurrences of species across
landscapes of interest to define sets of conditions under which species are likely to maintain populations.
The practical advantages of this correlative approach are its simplicity and the flexibility in terms of data
requirements. However, effective conservation management requires models that make projections
beyond the range of available data. One way to deal with such an extrapolation is to use a mechanistic
approach based on physiological processes underlying climate change effects on organisms. Here we
illustrate two approaches for developing physiology-based models to characterize fish habitat suitability.
(i) Aerobic Scope Models (ASM) are based on the relationship between environmental factors and aerobic
scope (defined as the difference between maximum and standard (basal) metabolism). This approach is
based on experimental data collected by using a number of treatments that allow a function to be
derived to predict aerobic metabolic scope from the stressor/environmental factor(s). This function is
then integrated with environmental (oceanographic) data of current and future scenarios. For any given
species, this approach allows habitat suitability maps to be generated at various spatiotemporal scales.
The strength of the ASM approach relies on the estimate of relative performance when comparing, for
example, different locations or different species. (ii) Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models are based on
first principles including the idea that metabolism is organised in the same way within all animals. The
(standard) DEB model aims to describe empirical relationships which can be found consistently within
physiological data across the animal kingdom. The advantages of the DEB models are that they make use
of the generalities found in terms of animal physiology and can therefore be applied to species for which
little data or empirical observations are available. In addition, the limitations as well as useful potential
refinements of these and other physiology-based modelling approaches are discussed. Inclusion of the
physiological response of various life stages and modelling the patterns of extreme events observed in
nature are suggested for future work.

ผลลัพธ์ (แอฟริกา) 1:

Gereedskap is nuttig modelle vir die voorspelling van die impak van die Global Change op spesies Distribution en oorvloed.
As ektotermies, Fish word uitgedaag om aan te pas of veranderinge in hul omgewing te hou, óf in die tyd
of in die ruimte Shift Deur 'n fenologiese deur 'n biogeografiese Shift. Past modellering pogings is grootliks
gebaseer op korrelatiewe Soort Distribution modelle, wat gebruik Bekende voorkomste van spesies Across
Landscapes van belang stelle toestande waaronder spesies is geneig om bevolkings handhaaf definieer.
Die praktiese voordele van hierdie korrelatiewe benadering is sy eenvoud en die buigsaamheid. in terme van data
vereistes. Egter effektiewe Conservation Management vereis modelle wat projeksies Maak
Beyond die omvang van die data beskikbaar is. Een manier om te gaan met so 'n ekstrapolasie is om 'n meganistiese gebruik
benadering gebaseer op fisiologiese prosesse onderliggend effekte Klimaatsverandering op organismes. Hier het ons
te illustreer twee benaderings vir die ontwikkeling-Fisiologie gebaseer modelle Fish habitat GESKIKTHEID kenmerk.
(I) Aerobiese Scope Models (ASM) is gebaseer op die verhouding tussen omgewingsfaktore en aerobiese
omvang (gedefinieer as die verskil tussen die maksimum en standaard (basale) metabolisme. ). Hierdie benadering is
gebaseer op eksperimentele data wat ingesamel is deur die gebruik van 'n aantal behandelings wat toelaat dat 'n funksie word
afgelei van die stressor aërobiese metaboliese omvang / Environmental faktor (e) te voorspel. Hierdie funksie is
dan met die Geïntegreerde Omgewingsbestuur (Oseanografiese) Data van huidige en toekomstige scenario's. Gegee vir enige
spesie, hierdie benadering word gegenereer kaarte Laat habitat GESKIKTHEID by verskeie tydruimtelike skale.
Die krag van die ASM benadering berus op die Begroting van relatiewe prestasie wanneer vergelyk, vir
voorbeeld, verskillende plekke of verskillende spesies. (II) Dynamic Energie Begroting (DEB) modelle is gebaseer op
beginsels, insluitend die eerste idee is dat metabolisme is georganiseer in die dieselfde manier Binne alle diere. Die
(standaard) DEB Model ten doel om empiriese verwantskappe wat konsekwent kan gevind Binne beskryf
fisiologiese data Oorkant die diereryk. Die voordele van die modelle is dat hulle DEB Maak gebruik
van die veralgemenings gevind in terme van Dierefisiologie en dus toegepas kan word om spesies waarvoor
empiriese waarnemings of min data beskikbaar is. Daarbenewens het die beperkings sowel as potensiële nuttig
is en Ander afrondings van hierdie benaderings bespreek-Fisiologie gebaseer modellering. Insluiting van die
fisiologiese reaksie van verskeie lewensfases en modellering van die Patrone Extreme gebeure waargeneem in
die natuur word voorgestel vir die toekoms werk.